A 'Triad' is one of the 3 half hours of highest national electricity usage during the winter (1st November to end of the following February) and is used in working out national transmission charges to be paid by electricity suppliers. Under some sales contracts, the costs of transmission charges are passed through to the end-user. Reducing consumption at the appropriate time can save a significant amount of money

'Triads' must be separated from each other by 10 days so consecutive days with high demands will not lead to multiple 'triads'.
The Triad Warning Status for a day is dependent on:
(a) the forecast or actual electricity peak demand on that day
(b) the peak demand on the most likely Triad days and
(c) statistics of forecast accuracy.

Recently the amount of surplus generation capacity has reduced and National Grid has introduced incentives for large energy users to reduce their demand at peak times. This ‘demand side response’ will make it even harder to predict the triad times!

Our triad forecast below is produced automatically using an unmanaged system running on a ‘’Raspberry Pi’ computer using Linux. It is scheduled to update the forecast twice per day at 10:00 and 15:00. Publication on this site is delayed by about 20 minutes.

Please note that the forecast is for information only. If you make use of it, it is at your own risk. How you use the forecast is outside of our control and we cannot be held liable in any way for any consequences arising from its use. It is based on currently available data and standard weather conditions for future days.


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